Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb84f…612c crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$31
culture 27% −$1
other 21% −$1
crypto 10% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 0% -42.7%
≤90d 7 -14.2% -22.4% 57% 0% -26.2%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage351d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 12? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 08 $31 −$31 -99%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on April 9? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 18? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 January 19-25? Feb 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 20? Dec 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Sep 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on September 12? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $260 $0 -0%
Will Justin Bieber be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 12 $260 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Sep 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 08 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $136 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jul 09 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ruth Nina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $154 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $29 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 14d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 80¢ $31 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $17 78d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $16 78d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $17 78d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $35 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 92d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 107d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 107d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 107d
Will XRP dip to $1.30 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $48 153d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 159d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 159d
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $55 182d
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 182d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 182d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 218d
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL No 100¢ $40 218d
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 218d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 99¢ $17 226d
Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $270 275d
Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $270 275d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $260 286d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $8 286d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 286d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.63 · official $40.63 (match) · 75 history records