Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb84d…c92e crypto 878 markets active 3h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (157 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$217 (+1%) realized +$218 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%772W / 100L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day157.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$227
14 days−$147
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$91
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 13% -10.9%
≤30d 872 -1.0% -10.5% 89% 15% -8.9%
≤90d 872 -1.0% -10.5% 89% 15% -8.9%
all 872 -1.0% -10.5% 89% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 15% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 5% -17.6%
15% -26.8% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses772 / 100
Open positions6
Markets (closed)872 / 878
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day157.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 872 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will USD fall to 16,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 77¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will USD fall to 17,400 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 96¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will USD reach 18,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Yes 79¢ 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.06 · official $16.06 (match) · 3500 history records