Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb84d…3307 weather 581 markets active 6h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%496W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$13
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$46
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -3.4% -12.6% 85% 4% -10.4%
≤30d 388 -0.8% -10.3% 88% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 571 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 5% -10.1%
all 571 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 5% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses496 / 75
Open positions9
Markets (closed)571 / 581
History coverage58d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.49 · official $84.48 (match) · 1588 history records