Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb84b…70eb
other · 283 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$6 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses148 / 132
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage250d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 3 History 280 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elche CF win on 2025-10-19? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2025-10-24? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Yes 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2025-10-23? Yes 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Yes 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? Yes 73¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hertha BSC vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-14? Yes 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15? Yes 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Real Sociedad (-0.5) Sevilla 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Yes 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 $0 +44%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 14 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 12 $1 +$2 +226%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 01 $1 +$2 +226%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +101%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 +$3 +307%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -99%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $1 +$1 +55%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $1 +$1 +65%
FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$10
sports 42% −$5
world 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1 7d
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17d
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $1 21d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 24d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) BUY Arsenal FC 49¢ $1 26d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 28d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1 28d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 28d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 28d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1 29d
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 31d
Will Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 31d
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 34d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $1 34d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 44d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 43% 43% -12.3%
≤30d 20 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 45% -13.6%
≤90d 93 +7.4% -2.8% 48% 48% +5.3%
all 280 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 50% -8.1%
10% -19.9% 46% -16.9%
15% -27.6% 43% -24.9%
20% -34.7% 36% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.86 · official $3.86 (match) · 432 history records