Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb849…d2ca crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day175.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -4.4%
≤30d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -4.4%
≤90d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -4.4%
all 40 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 40% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 30% -13.6%
15% -23.2% 18% -21.9%
20% -30.7% 10% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day175.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 43¢ 64¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$25 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$11 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$17 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$27 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.75 · official $16.60 · 188 history records