Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

B8 0xb848…62c0 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,260 (-9%) realized +$3,509 · open −$4,769

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$664per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$3,406now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$1,485

14 days−$1,172

30 days+$2,807

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-27.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	15	-31.6%	-38.1%	27%	20%	+40.9%
≤90d	17	-19.6%	-27.2%	35%	29%	+41.0%
all	17	-19.6%	-27.2%	35%	29%	+41.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.2%	29%	+41.0%
10%	-34.2%	29%	+27.5%
15%	-40.5%	29%	+15.2%
20%	-46.4%	24%	+3.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt +56% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$518) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -4% → late -33% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$747 vs −$149 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$3,406

Realized+$3,509

Unrealized−$4,769

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage34d

Avg bet$664

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	1¢	1¢	$3,953	$3,265	−$688 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	2¢	1¢	$222	$96	−$126 (-57%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	31¢	0¢	$4,000	$46	−$3,954 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$389	−$389	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States	Jun 12	$595	−$595	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$510	−$500	-98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Jun 06	$518	+$313	+60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Jun 01	$800	+$3	+0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	May 31	$1,280	+$3,094	+242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	May 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	May 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	May 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	May 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	May 22	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	May 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	May 22	$636	+$1,039	+163%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	May 20	$103	−$18	-18%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	May 20	$104	−$23	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	May 15	$26	+$24	+95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	May 15	$26	+$12	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	1¢	$3,953	2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	2¢	$200	12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	2¢	$22	13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL	0¢	$0	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	50¢	$389	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States	SELL	0¢	$0	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States	BUY	12¢	$595	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	34¢	$510	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	SELL No	21¢	$831	9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	31¢	$4,000	15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	BUY No	12¢	$518	15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	SELL No	18¢	$803	15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	SELL No	99¢	$4,374	15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	24¢	$4	17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	25¢	$5	17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	24¢	$320	17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	23¢	$151	17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY No	33¢	$800	23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY No	15¢	$400	23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY No	23¢	$400	23d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	SELL No	96¢	$1,675	24d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	29¢	$84	27d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$81	27d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	33¢	$103	28d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$104	28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$26	31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$50	31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	31d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,406.10 · official $3,406.10 (match) · 43 history records