Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb847…a697
weather · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$7
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$51
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Yes 15¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Yandex 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 14¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 3? Yes 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 3? Yes 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$4 +181%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $23 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 03 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +169%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) May 30 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 30 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -31%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $5 +$5 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$14
crypto 30% −$28
weather 21% −$12
politics 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $7 17m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 95¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 14¢ $19 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 57¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 3? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 12d
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) SELL Landaluce 98¢ $4 13d
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) BUY Landaluce 56¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 13d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $5 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 48¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down $1 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.2% +7.8% 100% 50% -0.5%
≤30d 19 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 42% -59.9%
≤90d 19 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 42% -59.9%
all 19 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 42% -59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 42% -59.9%
10% -15.5% 42% -63.7%
15% -23.6% 37% -67.2%
20% -31.1% 37% -70.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 40 history records