Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B8 0xb843…eac8 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$140 (-34%) realized −$187 · open +$47

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate22%2W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day20.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-78.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-75.9%	-78.2%	22%	0%	-92.8%
≤30d	9	-75.9%	-78.2%	22%	0%	-92.8%
≤90d	9	-75.9%	-78.2%	22%	0%	-92.8%
all	9	-75.9%	-78.2%	22%	0%	-92.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-78.2%	0%	-92.8%
10%	-80.3%	0%	-93.4%
15%	-82.2%	0%	-94.1%
20%	-83.9%	0%	-94.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -76% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$239

Realized−$187

Unrealized+$47

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses2 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)9 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day20.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?	Yes	36¢	98¢	$41	$110	+$70 (+171%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	58¢	45¢	$70	$55	−$15 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?	Yes	28¢	30¢	$40	$43	+$3 (+7%)
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals	Yes	33¢	24¢	$30	$22	−$8 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?	Yes	17¢	10¢	$6	$4	−$2 (-38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$5	1h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	33¢	$31	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?	BUY Yes	45¢	$26	3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$41	11h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	46¢	$20	12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	15h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	23¢	$51	21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	24h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.64 · official $238.64 (match) · 22 history records