Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb841…3cfb other 1550 markets active 3h ago coverage 40d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,329 (+5%) realized +$17,401 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1500W / 47L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% $0
other 28% +$217
sports 12% +$637
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% +$11
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -3.4% -12.6% 92% 2% -14.6%
≤30d 1152 +11.6% +1.0% 97% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 1547 +10.5% -0.0% 97% 1% -9.4%
all 1547 +10.5% -0.0% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -18.0%
15% -18.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -26.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$47 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$17,401
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1500 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1547 / 1550
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$237
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots No 99¢ 52¢ $153 $81 −$72 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots Jun 17 $111 +$2 +2%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $11,271 $0 +0%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs HyperSpirit (+6.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Amadou Onana: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Ibrahim Adel: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Hamza Abdelkarim: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Ryan Mendes: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $73 +$2 +2%
Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
Hélio Varela: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Willy Semedo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $86 +$2 +2%
Jovane Cabral: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Ibrahim Sangaré: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Ghislain Konan: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Moisés Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $53 +$3 +6%
Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
John Yeboah: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Jürgen Locadia: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Jeremy Antonisse: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $79 +$2 +2%
Jearl Margaritha: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $79 +$2 +2%
Juninho Bacuna: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Gervane Kastaneer: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $94 +$2 +2%
Brandley Kuwas: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
Kenji Gorré: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $93 +$2 +2%
Sontje Hansen: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $79 +$2 +2%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-3.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+3.5) Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Jackson Irvine: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Zeki Çelik: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots BUY No 99¢ $153 3h
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots BUY No 95¢ $19 3h
Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $111 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $18 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 52¢ $11 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $52 8h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY Game Master 99¢ $55 24h
First Blood in Game 1? BUY Grey Track 99¢ $55 24h
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY No 99¢ $55 24h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 24h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs HyperSpirit (+6.5) BUY Sashi Esport 2¢ $0 24h
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 38h
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 38h
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 38h
Amadou Onana: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 38h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 38h
Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves BUY No 96¢ $24 38h
Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves BUY No 95¢ $5 38h
Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves BUY No 96¢ $29 38h
Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 38h
Hélio Varela: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $15 42h
Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $57 42h
Jovane Cabral: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $56 42h
Ryan Mendes: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $50 42h
Willy Semedo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $62 42h
Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 44h
Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 44h
Hamza Abdelkarim: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 44h
Ibrahim Adel: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 44h
Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $25 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.83 · official $80.83 (match) · 3500 history records