Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb840…b29d crypto 24 markets active 7d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-46%) realized −$31 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$15
world 14% −$10
other 10% −$2
weather 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-77.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 23 -75.6% -77.9% 13% 13% -53.2%
all 23 -75.6% -77.9% 13% 13% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.9% 13% -53.2%
10% -80.0% 9% -57.7%
15% -81.9% 9% -61.8%
20% -83.7% 4% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $5 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 7? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -93%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 04 $10 +$20 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$9 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down $1 69d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 70d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 7? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 7? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 7? BUY Yes $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 7? BUY Yes $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 7? BUY Yes $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 71d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down $6 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up $5 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $10 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down $10 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.48 · official $5.48 (match) · 30 history records