Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb839…631c sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+4%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.3% -32.4% 36% 36% -7.9%
≤30d 14 -25.3% -32.4% 36% 36% -7.9%
≤90d 14 -25.3% -32.4% 36% 36% -7.9%
all 14 -25.3% -32.4% 36% 36% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 36% -7.9%
10% -38.9% 36% -16.7%
15% -44.8% 29% -24.7%
20% -50.2% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$19 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $35 −$6 -18%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $69 +$23 +34%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $22 −$2 -7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $73 +$68 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $87 +$47 +55%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $25 +$23 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $21 +$22 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $28 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $35 18h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $11 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $58 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $20 26h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $20 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $31 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $20 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $29 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $20 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $23 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $73 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $25 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 64¢ $36 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 64¢ $51 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $21 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $22 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records