Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb837…ffc5 crypto 1349 markets active 2d ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,230 (+6%) realized +$1,230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%694W / 655L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$309
14 days−$79
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$124
other 9% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 -12.2% -20.6% 48% 48% -23.0%
≤30d 685 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 52% -12.1%
≤90d 1349 -4.8% -13.8% 51% 51% -10.1%
all 1349 -4.8% -13.8% 51% 51% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 51% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 50% -18.7%
15% -29.6% 50% -26.6%
20% -36.5% 48% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses694 / 655
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1349 / 1349
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1349 Trades
no open positions (431 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$103 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$20 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$17 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$10 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$11 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records