Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb835…e4ec other 19 markets active 4h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-7%) realized −$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$97
tech 20% +$24
sports 19% +$44
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.7% -14.6% 44% 44% -18.0%
≤30d 16 -5.7% -14.6% 44% 44% -18.0%
≤90d 16 -5.7% -14.6% 44% 44% -18.0%
all 16 -5.7% -14.6% 44% 44% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 44% -18.0%
10% -22.8% 31% -25.8%
15% -30.3% 31% -33.0%
20% -37.1% 19% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$49 +134%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $10 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $36 16h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $29 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $9 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 36h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $20 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 90¢ $48 4d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 82¢ $10 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 74¢ $10 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 82¢ $30 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 74¢ $30 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.92 · official $67.92 (match) · 42 history records