Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb835…2e51 other 572 markets active 1h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,607 (-1%) realized −$2,554 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%375W / 189L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$962est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$7,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$2,344
14 days+$2,457
30 days−$9,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$37
sports 42% −$3,093
culture 4% +$169
crypto 1% +$68
world 1% +$80
politics 0% −$669
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.2% -26.9% 68% 26% +4.0%
≤30d 151 -34.4% -40.7% 36% 23% -27.5%
≤90d 352 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 31% -11.2%
all 564 -2.7% -11.9% 66% 30% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 30% -11.1%
10% -20.4% 22% -19.6%
15% -28.0% 17% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$202 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$7,180
Realized−$2,554
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses375 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$962
Open positions8
Markets (closed)564 / 572
History coverage293d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $2,820 $2,824 +$4 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,631 $1,630 −$1 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 45¢ 44¢ $1,308 $1,272 −$36 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,118 $1,123 +$5 (+0%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 52¢ 48¢ $188 $175 −$13 (-7%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? No 69¢ 65¢ $119 $113 −$6 (-5%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 52¢ 51¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $482 +$18 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $390 +$34 +9%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $255 +$28 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $238 +$26 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $831 +$53 +6%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $172 −$172 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,586 +$64 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,127 +$98 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $474 +$19 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $464 +$106 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,701 +$2,165 +127%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $759 +$51 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,741 +$492 +28%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $811 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $337 −$331 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $686 +$74 +11%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $224 +$444 +198%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $720 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $45 +$2 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $145 +$12 +8%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $489 +$358 +73%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Aurora win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $232 +$20 +9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1,324 −$1,294 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $1,397 +$609 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $110 +$10 +9%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $234 +$11 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 03 $7 +$21 +291%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $29 +$50 +172%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 02 $373 −$372 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs SportsBetExpert (BO3) - FRAG TAP Reload May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 31 $219 +$51 +23%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Voca (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le May 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 43¢ $4 47m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 44¢ $220 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 45¢ $761 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 45¢ $341 1h
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s BUY No 50¢ $25 6h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $367 14h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $116 14h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? SELL No 51¢ $2 17h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 50¢ $21 38h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 50¢ $4 38h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 53¢ $54 39h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 52¢ $61 39h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 52¢ $53 39h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY No 69¢ $120 2d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 1¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $107 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $58 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $58 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $169 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $58 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $23 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $53 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $238 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 27¢ $0 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,179.64 · official $7,178.53 (match) · 2007 history records