Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb832…7661 politics 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
sports 28% −$2
culture 11% $0
other 8% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 53 +2.5% -7.3% 11% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -16.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage239d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $4 $0 -13%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $78 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $2 $0 -25%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $164 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $83 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $1 $0 -25%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 29 $82 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 12 $1 +$3 +376%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 08 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 109d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 114d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 116d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 127d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 144d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 145d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 146d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 148d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $77 149d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $77 151d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 152d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C BUY No 100¢ $79 154d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 155d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $79 156d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 157d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $78 157d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $78 158d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 158d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 158d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $80 158d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $80 159d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 159d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 160d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 160d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $78 160d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $78 161d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records