Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb831…892b other 292 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,210 (+7%) realized +$10,195 · open −$1,985
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%119W / 380L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$4,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$9,643
politics 36% −$2,686
world 2% +$53
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -87.7% -88.9% 2% 1% -66.3%
≤30d 204 -65.3% -68.6% 6% 5% -16.2%
≤90d 361 -19.9% -27.5% 16% 12% -9.8%
all 499 +5.2% -4.9% 24% 16% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 16% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 14% -17.1%
15% -22.3% 12% -25.1%
20% -29.9% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$64 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$4,256
Realized+$10,195
Unrealized−$1,985
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses119 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)499 / 292
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$376
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $2,000 $3,974 +$1,974 (+99%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $55 $46 −$9 (-16%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $2,000 $26 −$1,974 (-99%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-38%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 378 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 23 $1 +$11 +918%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$47 -140%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $44 −$43 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 23 $3 +$31 +1009%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $46 −$47 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1600-1679 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$21 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 23 $5 −$13 -261%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $33 −$26 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$48 -141%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 29h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 29h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 30h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 31h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 31h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $399 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $40 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $957 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $957 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $9 21d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 21d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,256.20 · official $4,256.16 (match) · 3500 history records