Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb82f…9e1c sports 837 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,050 (+5%) realized +$4,032 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%415W / 421L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$491
14 days+$379
30 days−$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$2,210
sports 29% +$934
world 1% +$127
politics 1% +$411
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -33.6% -40.0% 39% 31% -3.8%
≤30d 612 -24.6% -31.8% 41% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 720 -15.3% -23.4% 46% 40% -9.1%
all 836 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 45% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 45% -5.2%
10% -25.9% 36% -14.3%
15% -33.1% 27% -22.5%
20% -39.7% 19% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$25 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized+$4,032
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses415 / 421
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions1
Markets (closed)836 / 837
History coverage156d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $515 $533 +$18 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $286 +$49 +17%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$88 +18%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $266 +$48 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $708 +$457 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $259 −$255 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $35 −$29 -82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $86 −$51 -59%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $35 +$18 +51%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $160 +$311 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $561 −$65 -12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $456 +$17 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +408%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $55 +$20 +35%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$22 -62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $907 +$98 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $901 +$9 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $187 +$86 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$26 -72%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 +$23 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 +$26 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $702 +$81 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $251 +$43 +17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $301 +$47 +16%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $308 +$34 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $335 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $251 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $35 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $590 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $251 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $251 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 29h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $251 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 32h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,165 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $708 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.90 · official $527.13 · 2122 history records