Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb82e…5278 crypto 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,042 (-16%) realized −$2,961 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%165W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$825
14 days−$1,225
30 days−$1,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$1,977
other 31% +$194
tech 10% −$838
finance 10% −$439
world 3% −$117
politics 2% −$394
sports 2% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -30.7% -37.3% 27% 26% -34.5%
≤30d 244 -12.2% -20.6% 32% 29% -24.4%
≤90d 454 -10.1% -18.7% 35% 32% -25.8%
all 480 -11.8% -20.2% 34% 31% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 31% -26.9%
10% -27.8% 28% -33.9%
15% -34.8% 24% -40.3%
20% -41.2% 20% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$2,961
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses165 / 315
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)480 / 484
History coverage589d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $31 $58 +$27 (+86%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $81 $29 −$52 (-64%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $47 $7 −$40 (-85%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $20 $4 −$17 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$9 +146%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $57 −$50 -88%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $88 −$72 -82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$14 -48%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $45 −$16 -35%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $103 −$99 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $147 −$139 -95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$30 +106%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$20 +77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $164 −$154 -94%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $61 −$59 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$47 -94%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $64 +$9 +13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 11 $134 +$84 +63%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 −$40 -94%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 11 $81 −$78 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $297 +$138 +46%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$40 +127%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $148 +$80 +54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$22 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $52 +$58 +112%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$45 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$16 -66%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $23 −$7 -29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 −$21 -54%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $52 −$18 -35%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 −$38 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $79 +$55 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $34 −$32 -94%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $114 −$46 -40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $250 −$242 -96%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$23 +36%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$3 +35%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$29 +275%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$5 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 09 $51 −$48 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 3h
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 3h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 3h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 3h
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5h
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $30 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 12¢ $73 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.09 · official $98.09 (match) · 1358 history records