Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb82c…db42 crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$81 (+3%) realized +$90 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%75W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$70
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$129
politics 4% −$35
other 3% −$8
weather 2% −$33
culture 1% −$13
sports 0% +$8
world 0% +$114
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.1% -52.1% 50% 0% -83.5%
≤30d 24 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 46% -28.7%
≤90d 140 +18.2% +7.0% 54% 48% -13.5%
all 140 +18.2% +7.0% 54% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 48% -13.5%
10% -3.3% 39% -21.7%
15% -12.6% 34% -29.3%
20% -21.2% 26% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses75 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)140 / 145
History coverage50d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$34 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 31 $5 +$18 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 29 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $5 +$15 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 27 $51 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 26 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 26 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 26 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $8 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.15 · official $27.15 (match) · 321 history records