Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb829…e101
world · 39 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$22 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)30 / 39
History coverage76d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 9 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 20¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 41¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 49¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$5 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $12 +$6 +48%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$5 -48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $113 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $9 +$2 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $6 −$5 -82%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $6 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 15 $6 +$1 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 15 $1 $0 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $3 $0 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $3 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $4 +$2 +40%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $2 +$1 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $2 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$1 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% −$10
sports 5% −$7
other 4% −$1
crypto 3% +$6
finance 2% −$7
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $1 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 24h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 20¢ $4 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $3 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $3 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 21¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 20¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +12.3%
≤30d 15 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 53% -8.5%
≤90d 30 -21.5% -29.0% 57% 47% -15.3%
all 30 -21.5% -29.0% 57% 47% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 47% -15.3%
10% -35.8% 20% -23.4%
15% -42.0% 13% -30.8%
20% -47.7% 3% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.41 · official $32.63 (match) · 292 history records