Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B8 0xb828…6703 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1,661 (+122%) realized +$1,546 · open +$115

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +131% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +109% what you keep after slip

Net edge+109%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown6%max

Avg bet$124per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$975

7 days+$975

14 days+$957

30 days+$1,409

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+109.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+629.7%	+560.2%	100%	100%	+474.2%
≤30d	7	+185.8%	+158.6%	43%	43%	+244.0%
≤90d	9	+131.0%	+109.0%	33%	33%	+158.6%
all	9	+131.0%	+109.0%	33%	33%	+158.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+109.0%	33%	+158.6%
10%	+89.0%	33%	+133.8%
15%	+70.7%	33%	+111.2%
20%	+54.0%	33%	+90.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +185% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +131% · $-wt +185% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$488 vs −$20 · ×24.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.24 per $1 lost it wins $12.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage

Net worth$486

Realized+$1,546

Unrealized+$115

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage37d

Avg bet$124

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown6%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$321	$406	+$85 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	Yes	3¢	5¢	$50	$80	+$30 (+60%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	Jun 25	$133	+$560	+422%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	Jun 24	$50	+$415	+838%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June?	Jun 16	$25	−$18	-73%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?	Jun 08	$21	−$21	-100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 08	$13	−$6	-49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Jun 04	$177	+$490	+276%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	May 28	$85	−$11	-13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	May 26	$211	−$46	-22%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	May 23	$63	−$17	-28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	SELL Yes	5¢	$85	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$107	15h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	SELL Yes	38¢	$693	21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	SELL Yes	100¢	$465	40h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$24	7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$52	8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	10¢	$50	8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$12	8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$17	9d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	9d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	9d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$7	9d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	9d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$25	10d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	7¢	$76	16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$6	20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	20d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL Yes	36¢	$667	21d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$8	22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	23d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$6	23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$6	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$98	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$22	23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	23d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.48 · official $493.61 · 53 history records