Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B8 0xb81f…a0f5 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,691 (-11%) realized −$1,691 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$194
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$135
crypto 19% −$1,660
sports 17% +$575
world 3% −$275
politics 3% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.5% +48.9% 100% 100% +48.9%
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.6% 50% 50% -24.5%
≤90d 7 +14.2% +3.3% 57% 57% -26.4%
all 36 -12.2% -20.6% 53% 50% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -18.8%
10% -28.2% 36% -26.5%
15% -35.1% 28% -33.6%
20% -41.5% 25% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$696) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$306 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage583d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $301 +$194 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $298 −$292 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $115 −$22 -19%
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 29 $512 +$287 +56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $348 +$225 +65%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Mar 23 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $94 +$126 +133%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $711 +$139 +20%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $898 +$280 +31%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 23 $495 +$307 +62%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 23 $6 +$1 +12%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $418 −$418 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jan 26 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 26 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? Dec 11 $1,934 +$368 +19%
Will Almanak FDV above $160M one day after launch? Dec 11 $2,044 +$238 +12%
Will Almanak FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 10 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch? Dec 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 28? Nov 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Nov 11 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Nov 04 $696 −$696 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Oct 30 $493 −$493 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $700 −$686 -98%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $615 +$205 +33%
Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ? Jul 19 $186 +$246 +132%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $800 +$235 +29%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? Jun 18 $352 −$352 -100%
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? Jun 18 $137 +$132 +96%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 18 $145 −$9 -6%
Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27? Dec 27 $884 +$160 +18%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Dec 26 $100 −$42 -42%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 24 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Usyk vs. Fury have no official winner? Dec 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $522 +$402 +77%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Dec 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $494 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $301 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $298 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff SELL Natus Vincere 6¢ $29 49d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Natus Vincere 12¢ $62 49d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $63 49d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $53 49d
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $799 84d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd SELL Natus Vincere 96¢ $573 85d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $348 85d
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $405 88d
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 88d
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $104 88d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou SELL TheMongolz 49¢ $220 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $79 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $5 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $8 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $1 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $2 89d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr SELL Vitality 100¢ $850 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $163 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $247 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 70¢ $111 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 70¢ $46 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 70¢ $7 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 70¢ $487 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 69¢ $69 90d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 69¢ $48 90d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 25¢ $759 90d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 16¢ $43 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records