Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb81e…ba06
crypto · 72 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$75 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$268
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)58 / 72
History coverage63d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 14 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 56¢ 72¢ $70 $89 +$19 (+27%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 67¢ 57¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-15%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 77¢ 78¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Qatar 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) T1 55¢ 52¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Morocco 88¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals No 68¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? No 71¢ 57¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals No 74¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Bilibili Gaming 84¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 27? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Spirit 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 DN SOOPers Challengers 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? No 93¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Vitality 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 27? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 27 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1 +$2 +112%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Apr 21 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Apr 21 $7 −$4 -52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $6 −$3 -47%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$3 +344%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $8 −$4 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $11 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Apr 20 $1 $0 +44%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia G Apr 20 $8 −$1 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 20 $2 +$1 +49%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Apr 20 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1 $0 -22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $6 −$3 -56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 16 $1 $0 -40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Apr 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Apr 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% −$43
crypto 24% −$4
other 24% −$29
finance 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $14 32m
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 55¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 79¢ $11 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $71 1h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Team WE 100¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $15 3h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $4 3h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $10 3h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $10 3h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $10 3h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Team WE 34¢ $4 3h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 39¢ $5 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $51 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 97¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $10 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $13 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 83¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $12 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $34 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $10 5h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 5h
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $5 5h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 33% -4.9%
≤30d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 33% -4.9%
≤90d 58 -15.9% -23.9% 48% 33% -23.1%
all 58 -15.9% -23.9% 48% 33% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 33% -23.1%
10% -31.2% 24% -30.5%
15% -37.8% 19% -37.2%
20% -43.9% 10% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.20 · official $268.20 (match) · 147 history records