Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb81d…cbc9 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$25
other 45% −$2
politics 2% −$1
sports 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 27 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 4% -9.9%
all 98 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage481d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $158 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2,185 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $336 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $136 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $285 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $145 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $175 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $132 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $287 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $450 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $153 +$19 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $214 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $112 +$10 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $156 −$58 -37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $171 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $153 +$1 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $1,026 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $151 −$6 -4%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5 Mar 17 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 16 $163 +$3 +2%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Joao Almeida win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $53 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $53 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $74 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $50 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $53 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $125 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $134 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $147 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $147 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $135 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $147 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $31 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $101 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $145 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $145 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $145 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $132 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.73 · official $75.12 (match) · 371 history records