Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B8 0xb81c…cb63 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$511 (-34%) realized −$452 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$67
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$128
sports 15% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -33.9%
≤30d 8 +11.6% +1.0% 62% 62% -28.8%
≤90d 8 +11.6% +1.0% 62% 62% -28.8%
all 8 +11.6% +1.0% 62% 62% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 62% -28.8%
10% -8.7% 62% -35.6%
15% -17.5% 62% -41.9%
20% -25.6% 50% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$173 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$452
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage13d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $64 $50 −$14 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$83 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $153 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $6 +$9 +154%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $133 +$78 +58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $90 +$47 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $361 −$358 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 +$82 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.28 · official $351.29 (match) · 30 history records