Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb817…bdc7 sports 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%175W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$181
14 days+$184
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$279
other 27% +$287
crypto 10% −$140
world 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.6% -10.0% 52% 52% +3.0%
≤30d 43 -9.1% -17.8% 47% 47% +0.3%
≤90d 240 -6.2% -15.2% 38% 36% -10.0%
all 409 -2.1% -11.5% 43% 40% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 40% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 37% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 33% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 27% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses175 / 234
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)409 / 411
History coverage106d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 409 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $70 +$49 +70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $470 +$54 +11%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 22 $27 +$18 +66%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$14 +55%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $18 +$11 +58%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 +$6 +38%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $17 +$49 +284%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 +$9 +28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $25 +$11 +43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 −$16 -48%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$8 +39%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$1 -13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $256 +$36 +14%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$4 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$23 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $82 −$67 -82%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $19 −$18 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $20 +$13 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $20 −$3 -15%
Jones vs. Galfi: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $20 +$13 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $30 +$11 +38%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $92 +$80 +87%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +103%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) Jun 09 $15 −$3 -22%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuxi: Yasutaka Uchiyama vs Alastair Gray May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuxi: Jie Cui vs Alexis Galarneau May 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $19 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $119 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $70 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 81¢ $524 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 84¢ $46 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $470 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 5h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $17 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 99¢ $39 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 96¢ $29 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $18 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $25 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL 73¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 70¢ $67 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 95¢ $39 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 86¢ $36 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $30 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $25 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL 30¢ $17 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY 57¢ $33 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 95¢ $29 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $4 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $5 39h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY 52¢ $15 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 67¢ $21 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $43 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1042 history records