Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb816…62e5 crypto 319 markets active 2d ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$283 (-4%) realized −$281 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%133W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$283
other 5% −$40
world 0% +$6
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.7% -12.8% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 6 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 29% 0% -19.6%
all 317 -8.4% -17.2% 42% 30% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 30% -13.8%
10% -25.1% 18% -22.0%
15% -32.3% 8% -29.6%
20% -39.0% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$281
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses133 / 184
Open positions2
Markets (closed)317 / 319
History coverage204d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Apr 13 $130 −$26 -20%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 11 $16 −$5 -29%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 07 $19 −$3 -18%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 -8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3PM ET Feb 23 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5PM ET Feb 23 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7AM ET Feb 18 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4PM ET Feb 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 17 $7 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 17 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 17 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3PM ET Feb 17 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 17 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 17 $12 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 17 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 17 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2PM ET Feb 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1PM ET Feb 17 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 17 $8 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 17 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 17 $13 −$8 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 43h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $33 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $33 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $33 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 26d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 26d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 60d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 61d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 62d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 63d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $76 67d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 69d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 97d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 99d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 99d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.54 · official $30.54 (match) · 1048 history records