Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb813…b83f other 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 25% −$22
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 193 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage128d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $265 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $602 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $477 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $183 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 3h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 4h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $48 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 23h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 29h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 31h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 34h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 35h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 36h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 38h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 39h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 41h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 42h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1290 history records