Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb80d…490b other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 24% −$22
politics 9% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage130d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $525 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $374 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $93 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $479 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $352 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $457 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $880 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $485 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $180 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $204 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 33m
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 7h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 11h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 15h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 17h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 18h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $44 23h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $44 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 35h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 37h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 38h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 40h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 41h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 42h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 44h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 45h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.70 · official $43.70 (match) · 1387 history records