Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb80d…f4a8 other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 26% −$30
politics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$2
world 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage136d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $382 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $344 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $333 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $358 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $307 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $602 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $315 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $567 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $553 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $969 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $384 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $296 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $70 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 31 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $411 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 5h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 11h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 12h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 21h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 23h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 24h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 27h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 29h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 29h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 31h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 36h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 38h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 45h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.96 · official $60.96 (match) · 1372 history records