Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb80b…b047
other · 104 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$233 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$149 · open −$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$609
Realized−$149
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses54 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)84 / 104
History coverage75d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 19 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$240
14 days+$307
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $264 $268 +$4 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $140 $90 −$50 (-36%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? No 77¢ 97¢ $37 $47 +$9 (+25%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $42 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 57¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+55%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+29%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 82¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 89¢ 91¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Finals? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 71¢ 87¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 55¢ 80¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 57¢ 67¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $28 $5 −$24 (-84%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Trump kiss by May 31? No 17¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Minnesota Lynx 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$85 +204%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $184 +$13 +7%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $14 −$6 -43%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $9 −$6 -68%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $13 −$3 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $138 +$16 +12%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 13 $87 −$32 -37%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $93 −$12 -13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +37%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $119 +$6 +5%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $32 +$30 +94%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 12 $64 −$10 -16%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $324 +$5 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $122 +$53 +43%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $83 −$51 -61%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $34 +$3 +8%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$9 +36%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 10 $272 +$11 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +33%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $78 −$34 -43%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $291 +$75 +26%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$27 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$4 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $215 +$69 +32%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $18 +$2 +12%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $61 +$8 +14%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $27 +$3 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $332 +$111 +33%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $213 −$166 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 24% −$16
other 24% +$83
politics 23% −$309
tech 8% +$47
finance 8% +$90
sports 6% +$32
culture 3% −$167
crypto 2% +$8
weather 2% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $12 1h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 77¢ $26 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 40¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $20 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $1 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 42¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $21 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 4h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $197 7h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $184 7h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 83¢ $42 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $8 11h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 13h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets SELL Panna Udvardy 3¢ $2 14h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets SELL Panna Udvardy 3¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Panna Udvardy 9¢ $9 14h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 14h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 14h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 17h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 17h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 19h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $140 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.8% -5.2% 75% 40% -3.4%
≤30d 82 -7.7% -16.5% 65% 40% -12.9%
≤90d 84 -7.6% -16.4% 64% 40% -11.6%
all 84 -7.6% -16.4% 64% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 40% -11.6%
10% -24.4% 25% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 8% -27.8%
20% -38.4% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.33 · official $609.33 (match) · 489 history records