Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb809…1d46 other 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-8%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate29%75W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$116
14 days−$132
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$178
other 16% −$104
world 6% +$113
politics 3% −$41
sports 3% −$17
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$25
weather 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -32.9% -39.3% 23% 20% -44.4%
≤30d 158 -21.3% -28.8% 30% 23% -35.4%
≤90d 236 -16.9% -24.8% 31% 25% -18.9%
all 261 -20.7% -28.2% 29% 23% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 23% -21.9%
10% -35.1% 16% -29.4%
15% -41.4% 13% -36.2%
20% -47.1% 10% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses75 / 186
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)261 / 266
History coverage509d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +389%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +649%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 13m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 14m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $7 56m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 59m
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 59m
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 27h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 27h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 30h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 32h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 45h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 45h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.52 · official $23.52 (match) · 675 history records