Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb808…780c crypto 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,558 (+9%) realized +$1,566 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%236W / 261L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$90
14 days+$88
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,320
sports 0% −$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -9.0% -17.6% 48% 47% +0.3%
≤30d 253 -6.2% -15.2% 49% 49% -13.5%
≤90d 462 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 45% -20.7%
all 497 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -2.8%
10% -24.6% 45% -12.1%
15% -31.9% 43% -20.6%
20% -38.5% 40% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$1,566
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses236 / 261
Open positions2
Markets (closed)497 / 499
History coverage151d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 49¢ 42¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Down 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$29 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$64 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$21 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$30 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$10 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $84 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $28 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.08 · official $47.08 (match) · 915 history records