Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb807…99cb
other · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,451 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,388 · open −$287
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,449
Realized+$1,388
Unrealized−$287
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions20
Markets (closed)29 / 49
History coverage27d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day129.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 20 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$1,054
14 days+$1,124
30 days+$1,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $1,086 $1,094 +$8 (+1%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $270 $187 −$82 (-31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $130 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $109 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $108 $104 −$4 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $93 $86 −$8 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $99 $36 −$63 (-64%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+50%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+83%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+219%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 12 $115 +$21 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $675 +$5 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $250 +$10 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $112 −$5 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $111 −$1 -1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 08 $2,195 +$995 +45%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,888 +$84 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $60 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $120 −$20 -17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 03 $352 −$176 -50%
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 02 $136 +$6 +4%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 02 $64 +$12 +18%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $160 +$204 +128%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 01 $160 +$176 +110%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $631 −$55 -9%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $162 −$40 -25%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $405 −$54 -13%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 28 $690 +$13 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $237 +$15 +6%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $243 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $560 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $77 +$23 +30%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 22 $3,920 +$205 +5%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $44 +$7 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 32% +$857
sports 25% +$199
other 22% +$223
tech 12% −$168
world 6% −$6
finance 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 22m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 23m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $3 6h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.4% -19.8% 46% 15% +7.6%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 24% -0.2%
≤90d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 24% -0.2%
all 29 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 24% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover129.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 24% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 14% -9.7%
15% -26.7% 10% -18.4%
20% -33.9% 7% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,448.56 · official $2,445.61 (match) · 3500 history records