Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb802…3902 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$23 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$26
politics 27% $0
other 14% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +56.0% +41.2% 100% 100% +41.2%
≤30d 1 +56.0% +41.2% 100% 100% +41.2%
≤90d 1 +56.0% +41.2% 100% 100% +41.2%
all 1 +56.0% +41.2% 100% 100% +41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.2% 100% +41.2%
10% +27.6% 100% +27.6%
15% +15.3% 100% +15.3%
20% +4.0% 100% +4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$924
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 28? No 94¢ 88¢ $350 $326 −$24 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $160 +$90 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $351 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $300 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 63¢ $160 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $923.57 · official $923.57 (match) · 5 history records