Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb7fe…4a05 sports 290 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$827 (+15%) realized +$834 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%190W / 98L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$160
14 days+$420
30 days+$772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$597
other 24% +$192
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 64% +4.6%
≤30d 147 -7.6% -16.4% 66% 57% +7.3%
≤90d 288 -3.5% -12.7% 66% 59% +5.1%
all 288 -3.5% -12.7% 66% 59% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 59% +5.1%
10% -21.0% 44% -5.0%
15% -28.6% 31% -14.2%
20% -35.6% 20% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$834
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses190 / 98
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)288 / 290
History coverage65d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 80¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $370 +$54 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $231 +$40 +17%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $7 +$4 +50%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$9 +44%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 +$7 +32%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $221 +$57 +26%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $7 +$4 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $13 $0 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 24 $8 +$5 +60%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $4 +$1 +27%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $2 −$1 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $355 +$270 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $117 +$102 +87%
Set Handicap: Harris (-1.5) vs Wong (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$9 +27%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$21 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $152 +$136 +90%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 +$105 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $111 +$34 +30%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 +$3 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $251 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $281 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $89 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $7 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $231 23h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 61¢ $7 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 64¢ $7 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $221 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 66¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 97¢ $13 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue BUY Polina Kudermetova 62¢ $8 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $5 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 66¢ $5 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $3 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 78¢ $4 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 96¢ $25 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 88¢ $10 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 63¢ $2 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 87¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.09 · official $393.09 (match) · 581 history records