Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7f9…53be crypto 387 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-6%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%180W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -7.5% -16.4% 47% 47% -14.8%
≤30d 386 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 47% -16.8%
≤90d 386 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 47% -16.8%
all 386 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 47% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 47% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 47% -24.7%
15% -33.2% 47% -32.0%
20% -39.8% 47% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses180 / 206
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.38 (match) · 577 history records