Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7f4…106c sports 1040 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized −$65 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%705W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$26
14 days−$23
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$82
other 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$8
world 1% −$13
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 48% -18.7%
≤30d 446 +3.5% -6.3% 68% 46% -10.3%
≤90d 1039 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 43% -12.3%
all 1039 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 25% -20.7%
15% -27.7% 16% -28.4%
20% -34.8% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses705 / 334
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1039 / 1040
History coverage70d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1039 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner HOTU 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 −$2 -12%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - ROG Jour Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $2 +$3 +121%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$4 -34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$1 +22%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 70¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 87¢ $5 13m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 50¢ $2 44m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 89¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL HOTU 5¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 33¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 30¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 30¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 30¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 30¢ $0 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 42¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $11 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 96¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 2¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $1 14h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 86¢ $5 18h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 41¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 85¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 81¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 50¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $1 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 84¢ $2 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $1 39h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 22¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 2778 history records