Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb7ef…812c
finance · 138 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$19,674 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,965 · open +$525
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38,301
Realized+$15,965
Unrealized+$525
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses89 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)125 / 138
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2,508
Trades / day78.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 13 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$923
7 days+$12,680
14 days+$13,025
30 days+$14,185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 100¢ 100¢ $13,975 $13,980 +$5 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10,778 $10,867 +$89 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 97¢ 100¢ $5,149 $5,284 +$136 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 96¢ 100¢ $3,765 $3,912 +$147 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,751 $2,854 +$103 (+4%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $534 $563 +$29 (+5%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $289 $290 +$2 (+1%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $263 $267 +$4 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 70¢ 80¢ $161 $183 +$22 (+14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $61 $49 −$12 (-19%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 55¢ 55¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of May 25 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $4,523 +$83 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $27,191 +$378 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $704 +$14 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $211 +$114 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $9,255 +$70 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 12 $2,371 −$881 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $7,427 +$1,039 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $2,782 −$179 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 11 $4,005 +$71 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $419 −$6 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $2,483 +$220 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $14,398 +$800 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 10 $8,913 +$749 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 10 $2,888 −$774 -27%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 08 $5,383 +$129 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $495 −$18 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $4,875 −$129 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 07 $22,822 +$11,033 +48%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $836 +$41 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $6,055 +$219 +4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 03 $609 +$11 +2%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 03 $276 −$26 -9%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $4.50 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.75 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $279 +$2 +1%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $4.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $965 +$84 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? May 31 $1,518 +$10 +1%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? May 30 $845 +$4 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $100 +$9 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $317 −$14 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $208 −$5 -2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? May 29 $508 +$41 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $134 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? May 29 $457 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $331 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $1,240 −$23 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2,044 +$79 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 28 $1,148 +$261 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4,545 −$29 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $7 +$2 +24%
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? May 28 $606 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 27 $1,907 −$884 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 27 $929 +$175 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 27 $1,026 −$87 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $1,364 +$6 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $235 +$13 +6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 27 $800 +$15 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 55% +$13,350
tech 26% +$1,423
world 16% +$1,208
other 3% +$506
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $1 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $1 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $4,990 12m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $40 13m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $60 13m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $103 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $28 15m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $28 17m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 100¢ $8,752 32m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 100¢ $1,146 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 100¢ $1,124 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 29¢ $9 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 100¢ $1,195 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $166 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $1,205 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $171 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 100¢ $1,204 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $60 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 99¢ $239 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 63% 16% -0.1%
≤30d 99 +17.2% +6.0% 66% 12% -3.3%
≤90d 125 +16.7% +5.6% 71% 14% -3.5%
all 125 +16.7% +5.6% 71% 14% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 14% -3.5%
10% -4.5% 9% -12.8%
15% ← realistic here -13.7% 6% -21.2%
20% -22.2% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,300.57 · official $38,300.57 (match) · 3500 history records