Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7ee…0ad8 sports 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$183 (+1%) realized +$281 · open −$98
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate49%142W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$16
14 days+$125
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$170
sports 27% −$181
world 23% −$108
finance 2% +$3
politics 1% +$9
culture 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 33% +0.3%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 80% 47% -1.7%
≤90d 291 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 24% -9.2%
all 291 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 24% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 19% -17.9%
15% -33.3% 17% -25.8%
20% -39.8% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,215
Realized+$281
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses142 / 149
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage82d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 66¢ 59¢ $852 $765 −$87 (-10%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $455 $444 −$10 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $133 +$15 +11%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $8 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +8%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $475 +$106 +22%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $91 −$56 -62%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 +$12 +12%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $305 +$21 +7%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $110 +$15 +14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $924 +$39 +4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $90 +$20 +22%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $223 +$50 +23%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? May 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 10 $3 $0 +10%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? May 09 $2 $0 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 04 $19 $0 -0%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30? May 02 $11 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 01 $53 $0 +0%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $26 −$7 -27%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1? Apr 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $12 $0 +2%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by April 30? Apr 24 $8 +$1 +16%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Apr 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? Apr 22 $9 $0 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $14 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 22 $6 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Apr 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 21 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 21 $75 +$7 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 21 $12 +$2 +15%
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5) Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5) Apr 16 $0 $0 -97%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $4 $0 +5%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $148 1h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 3d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 3d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 3d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 4d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $208 5d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $47 5d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $120 5d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 5d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 5d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 5d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 85¢ $212 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 6d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 84¢ $200 6d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 6d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 82¢ $205 6d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $208 6d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 84¢ $420 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $581 8d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 8d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $65 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 9d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,215.44 · official $1,215.49 (match) · 1980 history records