Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7ed…6fb8 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,002 (-6%) realized −$4,149 · open +$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%132W / 114L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$125
14 days−$100
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,195
other 2% −$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.6% +0.9% 57% 57% -13.8%
≤30d 50 +4.1% -5.8% 58% 58% -9.1%
≤90d 113 -8.8% -17.4% 51% 51% -18.7%
all 246 -0.7% -10.2% 54% 53% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 53% -14.9%
10% -18.8% 53% -23.1%
15% -26.6% 52% -30.5%
20% -33.8% 48% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$257 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$4,149
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses132 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage143d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 90¢ $200 $347 +$147 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $313 +$220 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $190 +$123 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $331 −$326 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $191 +$140 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $197 −$194 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $193 +$195 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$53 -52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $168 +$216 +129%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $279 −$275 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 +$129 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$74 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 +$37 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $113 −$111 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $282 −$278 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $170 −$168 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $212 −$209 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 +$161 +79%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $543 +$308 +57%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $346 +$197 +57%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $169 +$177 +105%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $291 −$287 -99%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $168 +$123 +73%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $291 −$286 -98%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $168 +$123 +73%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $400 −$395 -99%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $297 +$103 +34%
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $125 −$123 -98%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $234 +$189 +81%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $266 +$140 +53%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $509 +$254 +50%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $181 +$84 +46%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $203 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $304 −$300 -99%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $280 +$213 +76%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $183 +$317 +172%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $227 +$176 +78%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $120 +$89 +74%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $209 −$206 -99%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $162 −$160 -99%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $169 +$114 +67%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $280 +$205 +73%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 May 31 $169 +$109 +64%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $170 −$167 -98%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 May 30 $174 +$122 +70%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 May 29 $167 −$165 -99%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 May 24 $164 −$162 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 24 $100 +$65 +65%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $114 +$111 +97%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $104 −$102 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $313 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $190 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $331 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $331 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $197 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $191 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $91 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $49 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $168 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $279 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $150 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $76 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $40 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $113 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $282 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $170 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $212 9d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 10d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $851 10d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $543 11d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $346 11d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $346 11d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $169 11d
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $291 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.73 · official $346.73 (match) · 427 history records