Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7e9…bdac other 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$17,189 (-19%) realized −$1,917 · open −$1,130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%45W / 158L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day189.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,073
7 days−$4,232
14 days−$3,816
30 days−$1,917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$2,038
politics 11% −$258
tech 10% −$277
other 6% −$1,087
weather 5% −$798
finance 3% +$135
sports 1% −$82
crypto 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -8.6% -17.3% 17% 6% -15.2%
≤30d 203 +3.4% -6.5% 22% 7% -11.4%
≤90d 203 +3.4% -6.5% 22% 7% -11.4%
all 203 +3.4% -6.5% 22% 7% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 7% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 3% -19.8%
15% -23.6% 3% -27.6%
20% -31.1% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$31 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized−$1,917
Unrealized−$1,130
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses45 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions28
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage18d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day189.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 62¢ $106 $86 −$20 (-19%)
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? No 60¢ 42¢ $122 $84 −$38 (-31%)
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 40¢ $161 $81 −$80 (-50%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 67¢ 13¢ $330 $64 −$266 (-81%)
Will Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 93¢ 80¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 65¢ $63 $46 −$17 (-27%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 34¢ $88 $44 −$44 (-50%)
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 35¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $112 $38 −$74 (-66%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 47¢ $56 $38 −$18 (-33%)
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 16¢ $137 $36 −$100 (-73%)
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 35¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-21%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $48 $29 −$20 (-41%)
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 85¢ 25¢ $77 $22 −$54 (-71%)
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 83¢ 29¢ $58 $20 −$38 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 35¢ 9¢ $17 $4 −$12 (-73%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-88%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 44¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? No 46¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-87%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? No 50¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.25 million Jun 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14? Jun 14 $8 −$52 -651%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne Jun 14 $0 −$6 -1924%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 136.5 Jun 14 $485 −$485 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5? Jun 14 $61 −$59 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 22? Jun 14 $94 −$103 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele Jun 14 $86 −$82 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? Jun 14 $0 +$13 +4428%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on March 22? Jun 14 $31 −$57 -185%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 10? Jun 14 $7 −$62 -937%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +1320%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent? Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Lakers vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1,040 −$1,060 -102%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 16? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 16? Jun 14 $10 −$35 -345%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on Mar Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22? Jun 14 $1 −$11 -1869%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 10? Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 20? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,805 +$63 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $125 −$18 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 14 $114 −$29 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $514 +$10 +2%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $138 −$125 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $114 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $115 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $147 −$51 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $86 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$10 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 −$47 -51%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $281 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2,861 −$174 -6%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $256 +$37 +14%
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 14 $64 −$3 -4%
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $235 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro BUY No 36¢ $30 16m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $48 21m
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro BUY No 36¢ $13 25m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $29 29m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 39m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 10¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 66¢ $5 40m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 26¢ $33 48m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 26¢ $2 51m
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro SELL Yes 61¢ $63 52m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $34 56m
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 57m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 15¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 15¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 66¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 46¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.10 · official $784.10 (match) · 3500 history records