Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb7e6…d9e3 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$9 (-5%) realized +$21 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$34
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$3
other 18% −$7
economics 12% −$8
world 6% +$9
finance 2% −$3
politics 1% −$2
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +71.9% +55.6% 45% 45% +51.1%
≤30d 56 +17.9% +6.7% 29% 29% +14.7%
≤90d 61 +9.8% -0.6% 26% 26% +8.4%
all 61 +9.8% -0.6% 26% 26% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 26% +8.4%
10% -10.1% 25% -2.0%
15% -18.8% 25% -11.5%
20% -26.8% 23% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions51
Markets (closed)61 / 112
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 12¢ 25¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+101%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +817%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +161%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1 +$12 +893%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 03 $1 $0 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$16 +785%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 9? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $10 −$4 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 3? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $1 +$3 +252%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 26? May 26 $1 +$3 +295%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 25? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 76¢ $4 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 10h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 10h
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $1 4d
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 10¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 10¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 10¢ $0 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 23¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.61 · official $44.81 (match) · 171 history records