Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7e4…9d6b politics 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$4
sports 21% −$13
other 12% −$3
crypto 10% $0
world 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.8% -32.9% 25% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 5 -20.7% -28.2% 20% 0% -14.4%
≤90d 5 -20.7% -28.2% 20% 0% -14.4%
all 38 -6.2% -15.2% 16% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage231d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $2 $0 -12%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $194 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $2 $0 +13%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $198 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $101 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $296 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $1 $0 -39%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $70 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $73 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 26d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 125d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 137d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 138d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 138d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 140d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $93 145d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $93 145d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 146d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 146d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 146d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 148d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 148d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $98 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.38 · official $1.38 (match) · 195 history records