Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7e3…989c crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$441 (-43%) realized −$277 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$593
crypto 41% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 6% 6% -67.9%
≤30d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 6% 6% -67.9%
≤90d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 6% 6% -67.9%
all 17 -16.0% -24.0% 6% 6% -67.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 6% -67.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 6% -71.0%
15% -37.9% 6% -73.8%
20% -44.0% 6% -76.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$49 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$277
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$4 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$253 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $234 −$229 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 20 $135 −$132 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $70 −$68 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 40 history records