Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb7e2…090b sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$132 (+12%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$76
14 days+$181
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$197
other 22% −$38
crypto 6% +$26
world 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 44% -25.3%
≤30d 40 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 40% +7.9%
≤90d 40 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 40% +7.9%
all 51 -9.0% -17.6% 41% 35% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 35% +6.0%
10% -25.5% 33% -4.1%
15% -32.7% 31% -13.4%
20% -39.3% 25% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage114d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$9 +450%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 +$33 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $72 +$21 +29%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $25 +$11 +45%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$11 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$13 -64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$8 -80%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$106 +344%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $247 +$191 +78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$23 -15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$12 -51%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 05 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$8 +84%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 05 $10 −$3 -28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 05 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 05 $40 +$34 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 02 $10 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $64 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $31 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $93 1h
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 5¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $72 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $10 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $32 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 21¢ $7 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $25 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 10¢ $2 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $20 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 37h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $97 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $62 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 97 history records