Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B7 0xb7e1…8c19 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,229 (+43%) realized +$1,011 · open +$218
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$25
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$1,070
tech 17% +$151
crypto 4% $0
politics 2% −$19
world 1% +$28
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 5 -8.1% -16.9% 20% 20% -42.3%
≤90d 21 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% +7.0%
all 47 +18.1% +6.9% 38% 38% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 38% +32.6%
10% -3.3% 34% +19.9%
15% -12.7% 32% +8.3%
20% -21.2% 30% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$5 · ×13.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.1 per $1 lost it wins $8.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized+$1,011
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage131d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 70¢ 82¢ $369 $431 +$62 (+17%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 18¢ $207 $252 +$45 (+22%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 21¢ 46¢ $94 $205 +$111 (+118%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $51 −$26 -50%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? May 27 $5 $0 -4%
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? May 27 $5 −$1 -20%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $26 +$30 +116%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? May 05 $84 +$44 +52%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,636 +$245 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $50 +$79 +159%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Mar 03 $3 +$6 +192%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $68 +$493 +725%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $19 +$204 +1073%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 12 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Feb 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Feb 11 $7 −$3 -42%
Will Trump say "Hellhole" this week? (February 8) Feb 09 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 06 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 06 $1 $0 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? Feb 06 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (February 8) Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 06 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 05 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8? Feb 05 $3 +$4 +144%
Will Trump talk to Kevin Warsh in February? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 04 $14 −$12 -88%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 42¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $26 7d
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 18d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 18d
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 18d
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $36 23d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 81¢ $50 24d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? SELL No $4 30d
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 30d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? BUY No $5 30d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? BUY No $5 30d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 99¢ $55 30d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 47¢ $15 31d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 78¢ $10 31d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 31d
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 42¢ $10 31d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY No 60¢ $10 31d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 89¢ $20 31d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No $1 32d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 32d
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 32d
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? BUY No $5 39d
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $13 39d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 39d
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? BUY No $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $888.56 · official $888.56 (match) · 169 history records