Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7e1…7950 sports 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$248 (-2%) realized −$242 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate78%219W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$361
14 days−$190
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$94
other 3% −$173
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -7.8% -16.6% 82% 20% -13.1%
≤30d 248 -5.8% -14.7% 82% 16% -10.6%
≤90d 248 -5.8% -14.7% 82% 16% -10.6%
all 280 -6.0% -15.0% 78% 19% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 19% -11.1%
10% -23.1% 9% -19.6%
15% -30.5% 5% -27.4%
20% -37.4% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses219 / 61
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage113d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 94¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 76¢ 46¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 93¢ 94¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $80 +$7 +8%
ITF Tulsa: Bruno Kuzuhara vs Gavin Young Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Yilin Chen Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
ITF Tulsa: Nicolas Arseneault vs Christian Langmo Jun 18 $50 +$2 +3%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $46 −$2 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $46 +$3 +7%
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $47 +$3 +7%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $16 +$4 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $17 +$3 +17%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $17 +$3 +15%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $16 +$4 +21%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 16 $17 $0 -3%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 93¢ $18 12m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 100¢ $19 13m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 95¢ $18 54m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $100 1h
ITF Tulsa: Bruno Kuzuhara vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 96¢ $30 5h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 96¢ $40 6h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 76¢ $31 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 88¢ $40 6h
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Yilin Chen SELL Veronica Miroshnichenko 100¢ $21 6h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $51 7h
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Yilin Chen BUY Veronica Miroshnichenko 97¢ $20 7h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 97¢ $50 7h
ITF Tulsa: Nicolas Arseneault vs Christian Langmo BUY Christian Langmo 97¢ $50 7h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 96¢ $20 9h
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick BUY Braden Shick 96¢ $50 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser SELL Jeline Vandromme 100¢ $52 9h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 94¢ $50 9h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $51 10h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 97¢ $50 10h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Jeline Vandromme 96¢ $50 10h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Max Alcala Gurri 90¢ $45 10h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 92¢ $46 11h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $21 11h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 94¢ $20 11h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno $2 11h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 100¢ $53 11h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 94¢ $50 11h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $50 12h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 93¢ $46 12h
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska SELL Martina Capurro Taborda 98¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.06 · official $142.54 (match) · 568 history records