Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb7e0…0d8a sports 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,017 (-7%) realized −$4,073 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%472W / 233L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$329est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$2,144
14 days−$587
30 days−$3,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,105
crypto 4% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -30.3% -37.0% 51% 41% -37.4%
≤30d 192 -23.2% -30.5% 55% 39% -26.1%
≤90d 495 -12.1% -20.4% 59% 47% -21.4%
all 705 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 52% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 52% -16.0%
10% -20.7% 38% -24.1%
15% -28.4% 24% -31.4%
20% -35.4% 14% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$67 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$4,073
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses472 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage128d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season 9z Team 56¢ 100¢ $73 $129 +$56 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne Jun 18 $155 +$17 +11%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $136 +$19 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$36 +36%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $29 +$3 +10%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $14 −$12 -86%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $53 −$29 -55%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +33%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $47 −$42 -89%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $213 −$212 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $210 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $200 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $164 +$98 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $98 +$66 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $233 −$107 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$122 +61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $163 +$40 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $105 +$57 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $147 −$147 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 13 $173 −$173 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,594 −$1,157 -73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$6 -18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 56¢ $74 21m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $173 24m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 90¢ $155 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z Team 100¢ $156 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z Team 87¢ $6 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z Team 87¢ $100 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z Team 88¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 73¢ $100 7h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 82¢ $9 25h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner BUY Division One 62¢ $22 25h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $32 25h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $29 26h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $29 26h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 88¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Team Nemesis 5¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Team Nemesis 7¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 19¢ $14 28h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 99¢ $14 28h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 75¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 24¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 98¢ $43 28h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $43 28h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 46¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.35 · official $128.96 (match) · 1844 history records