Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb7dd…e5e4 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$822 (+2%) realized +$838 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$33
14 days+$944
30 days+$981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% +$1,134
other 2% +$17
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 60% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 81% 19% -6.5%
≤90d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 19% -6.5%
all 26 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 19% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 19% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 12% -15.5%
15% -27.1% 4% -23.6%
20% -34.2% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$641) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$4 · ×12.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×97.56 per $1 lost it wins $97.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$3,665
Realized+$838
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions31
Markets (closed)26 / 57
History coverage77d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $2,277 $2,345 +$69 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 34¢ 98¢ $150 $427 +$277 (+184%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 18¢ 14¢ $257 $189 −$68 (-26%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 85¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+38%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 85¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $32 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 87¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 78¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-11%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 80¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 60¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+28%)
Will Austria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $13 −$6 (-31%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $16 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Jun 20 $641 +$33 +5%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senat Jun 20 $557 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$8 -30%
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? Jun 17 $93 +$6 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $6,777 +$285 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $502 +$331 +66%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $952 +$138 +14%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $18,492 +$133 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $557 +$23 +4%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $174 +$26 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $126 +$11 +9%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $2,394 +$23 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 15 $1,078 +$30 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t May 15 $346 +$9 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 13 $347 +$22 +6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 May 10 $113 +$1 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the Apr 28 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,011 +$9 +1%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $131 +$33 +25%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $191 +$51 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 13¢ $54 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $594 4h
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $674 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $97 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 3d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? SELL No 99¢ $99 3d
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senat BUY Yes 99¢ $18 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $18 5d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $19 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 7d
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 7d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 7d
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 8d
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 8d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $14 8d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $0 8d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $20 9d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,664.92 · official $3,665.69 (match) · 954 history records